Air Plan Approval; GA: Non-Interference Demonstration and Maintenance Plan Revision for Federal Low-Reid Vapor Pressure Requirement in the Atlanta Area |
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Mary S. Walker
Environmental Protection Agency
12 February 2019
[Federal Register Volume 84, Number 29 (Tuesday, February 12, 2019)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 3358-3369]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2019-01863]
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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
40 CFR Part 52
[EPA-R04-OAR-2018-0617; FRL-9989-40-Region 4]
Air Plan Approval; GA: Non-Interference Demonstration and
Maintenance Plan Revision for Federal Low-Reid Vapor Pressure
Requirement in the Atlanta Area
AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
ACTION: Proposed rule.
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SUMMARY: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is proposing to
approve a State Implementation Plan (SIP) revision that would support a
change to the Federal Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) requirements in 13
counties in Atlanta, Georgia. They comprise the following counties:
Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, Coweta, DeKalb, Douglas, Fayette, Forsyth,
Fulton, Gwinnett, Henry, Paulding, and Rockdale (the ``Atlanta fuel
volatility Area''). The Atlanta fuel volatility Area is a subset of the
Atlanta 15-county 2008 8-hour ozone maintenance area. The 15-county
2008 8-hour ozone maintenance area is comprised of the following
counties: Bartow, Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, Coweta, DeKalb, Douglas,
Fayette, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett, Henry, Newton, Paulding, and
Rockdale (the ``Atlanta maintenance Area''). This proposed approval is
based in part on EPA's analysis of whether the SIP revision would
interfere with the 15-county Atlanta maintenance Area's ability to meet
the requirements of the Clean Air Act (CAA or Act). On August 15, 2018,
Georgia through the Georgia Environmental Protection Division (GA EPD),
submitted a noninterference demonstration to support its SIP revision
requesting that EPA relax the federal RVP requirements for the Atlanta
fuel volatility Area. This SIP revision updates Georgia's 2008 8-hour
ozone maintenance plan for the 15-county Atlanta maintenance Area and
its emissions inventory, the associated motor vehicle emissions budgets
(MVEBs) and includes measures to offset the emissions increases
expected from the relaxation of the federal RVP requirements. Georgia's
noninterference demonstration concludes that relaxing the federal RVP
requirement from 7.8 pounds per square inch (psi) to 9.0 psi for
gasoline sold between June 1 and September 15 of each year in the
Atlanta fuel volatility Area would not interfere with attainment or
maintenance of any national ambient air quality standards
[[Page 3359]]
(NAAQS or standards) or with any other CAA requirement. EPA is
proposing to approve this SIP revision because EPA has preliminarily
determined that the revision is consistent with the applicable
provisions of the CAA.
DATES: Comments must be received on or before March 14, 2019.
ADDRESSES: Submit your comments, identified by Docket ID No. EPA-R04-
OAR-2018-0617 at http://www.regulations.gov. Follow the online
instructions for submitting comments. Once submitted, comments cannot
be edited or removed from Regulations.gov. EPA may publish any comment
received to its public docket. Do not submit electronically any
information you consider to be Confidential Business Information (CBI)
or other information whose disclosure is restricted by statute.
Multimedia submissions (audio, video, etc.) must be accompanied by a
written comment. The written comment is considered the official comment
and should include discussion of all points you wish to make. EPA will
generally not consider comments or comment contents located outside of
the primary submission (i.e. on the web, cloud, or other file sharing
system). For additional submission methods, the full EPA public comment
policy, information about CBI or multimedia submissions, and general
guidance on making effective comments, please visit http://www2.epa.gov/dockets/commenting-epa-dockets.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Dianna Myers, Air Regulatory
Management Section, Air Planning and Implementation Branch, Air,
Pesticides and Toxics Management Division, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, Region 4, 61 Forsyth Street SW, Atlanta, Georgia
30303-8960. Ms. Myers can be reached via telephone at (404) 562-9207 or
via electronic mail at Myers.Dianna@epa.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
I. What is EPA proposing?
This rulemaking proposes to approve Georgia's SIP revision for the
maintenance plan, submitted on August 15, 2018, that would support the
State's request that EPA relax the federal RVP requirement from 7.8 psi
to 9.0 psi for gasoline sold between June 1 and September 15 of each
year (high ozone season) in the Atlanta fuel volatility Area. EPA is
also proposing to find that Georgia has demonstrated that changing the
federal RVP requirements in the Atlanta fuel volatility Area will not
interfere with attainment or maintenance of any NAAQS or with any other
applicable requirement of the CAA.
On July 18, 2016, Georgia submitted a 2008 8-hour ozone
redesignation request and maintenance plan for the 15-county 2008 8-
hour ozone Atlanta maintenance Area, which EPA approved on June 2, 2017
(82 FR 25523). With its redesignation request, Georgia included a
maintenance plan demonstration that estimated emissions through 2030
and modeled the federal 7.8 psi RVP summer gasoline volatility limit in
the emissions calculations. The August 15, 2018, submittal updates
Georgia's 2008 8-hour ozone maintenance plan mobile emissions
inventory, associated MVEBs, and includes measures to offset the
emissions increases resulting from any relaxation of the federal RVP
requirements. The offset measures are described in Section V, below.
The updates are summarized in Georgia's submittal which can be viewed
at http://www.regulations.gov.
To support the August 15, 2018, SIP revision Georgia evaluated
whether changing the 7.8 psi RVP to 9.0 psi RVP federal requirement
would interfere with air quality in the 15-county Atlanta maintenance
Area. To make this demonstration of noninterference, Georgia completed
a technical analysis, including using the current version of EPA's
Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES2014a) to project the change in
emissions that would result from the RVP relaxation of 7.8 psi to 9.0
psi in the 15-county Atlanta maintenance Area.
In this noninterference demonstration, Georgia used MOVES2014a to
develop its projected emissions inventory according to EPA's guidance
for on-road and nonroad mobile sources. Georgia used the NONROAD 2008
model within MOVES2014a to develop the nonroad emissions inventory to
reflect the emissions changes from relaxing the RVP of 7.8 psi to 9.0
psi in the Atlanta fuel volatility Area.
The 2014 attainment base year mobile emissions were taken directly
from the 2008 maintenance SIP and future-year on-road mobile source
emissions estimates for 2018, 2020, 2030, and 2040 were modeled using a
RVP input parameter of 10.0 psi.\1\ Georgia interpolated years 2025 and
2035 to further illustrate the downward trend in emissions. Georgia
selected years 2020, 2030 and 2040 because these years are used by the
Atlanta Regional Commission in Atlanta's transportation conformity
determinations. The 2008 8-hour maintenance plan showed compliance with
and maintenance of the 2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS until the 2030 outyear
by providing information to support the demonstration that current and
future emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic
compounds (VOC) remained at or below the 2014 base year emissions
inventory. For more detailed information on the current approved
maintenance plan, see EPA's December 23, 2016 (81 FR 94283), proposed
approval of Georgia's maintenance plan for the 2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS.
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\1\ The input parameter of 10.0 psi includes a RVP of 9.0 psi
with a 1 percent ethanol waiver.
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In this action, EPA is proposing to approve the State's technical
demonstration that the 15-county Atlanta maintenance Area can continue
to attain and maintain the 2008 ozone NAAQS, as well as other NAAQS,
and meet all other CAA requirements after changing to the sale of
gasoline with a RVP of 9.0 psi during the high ozone season in the 13-
county Atlanta fuel volatility Area. EPA is also proposing to approve
the revised mobile emissions inventory, the associated MVEBs, and the
measures to offset the emissions increases due to relaxation of the
federal RVP requirements. EPA's section 110(l) analysis of the
noninterference demonstration included as a part of Georgia's August
15, 2018, SIP revision is provided below. Consistent with CAA section
211(h) and the Phase II volatility regulations, EPA will initiate a
separate rulemaking to relax the current federal requirement to use
gasoline that complies with the federal RVP limit from 7.8 psi to 9.0
psi in the 13-county Atlanta fuel volatility Area.
II. What is the background for the Atlanta Area?
On November 6, 1991 (56 FR 56694), EPA designated and classified
the following counties in and around the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan
area as a Serious ozone nonattainment area for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS:
Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, Coweta, DeKalb, Douglas, Fayette, Forsyth,
Fulton, Gwinnett, Henry, Paulding, and Rockdale. This 13-county 1-hour
ozone area is the ``Atlanta fuel volatility Area.'' The nonattainment
designation triggered various requirements for the Atlanta 1-hour ozone
nonattainment area. One of those requirements for the 1-hour ozone
nonattainment area was the federal 7.8 psi RVP limit for gasoline sold
between June 1 and September 15, which is the subject of this action.
Because the Atlanta 1-hour ozone nonattainment area failed to
attain the 1-hour ozone NAAQS by November 15, 1999, EPA issued a final
rulemaking action on September 26, 2003, to
[[Page 3360]]
reclassify or ``bump up,'' the area to a Severe ozone nonattainment
area. This reclassification became effective on January 1, 2004 (68 FR
55469). EPA redesignated the Atlanta 1-hour ozone nonattainment area to
attainment for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS, effective June 14, 2005 (70 FR
34660).
On April 30, 2004 (69 FR 23858), EPA designated the following 20
counties in and around metropolitan Atlanta as a Marginal nonattainment
area for the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS: Barrow, Bartow, Carroll,
Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, Coweta, DeKalb, Douglas, Fayette, Forsyth,
Fulton, Gwinnett, Hall, Henry, Newton, Paulding, Rockdale, Spalding,
and Walton. The Atlanta fuel volatility Area is a sub-set of this 20-
county area. Subsequently, EPA reclassified the Atlanta 1997 8-hour
ozone nonattainment area as a Moderate nonattainment area on March 6,
2008 (73 FR 12013), because the area failed to attain the 1997 8-hour
ozone NAAQS by the required attainment date of June 15, 2007.
Subsequently, the Atlanta 1997 8-hour ozone nonattainment area attained
the 1997 8-hour ozone standard, and on December 2, 2013 (78 FR 72040),
EPA redesignated the area to attainment for the 1997 8-hour ozone
NAAQS.
Effective July 20, 2012, EPA designated the following 15-counties
Marginal nonattainment for the 2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS: Bartow,
Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, Coweta, DeKalb, Douglas, Fayette, Forsyth,
Fulton, Gwinnett, Henry, Paulding, and Rockdale. As mentioned before,
the Atlanta fuel volatility Area is sub-set of this 15-county area. The
15-county Atlanta 2008 8-hour ozone nonattainment area did not attain
the 2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS by the attainment date of July 20, 2015,
and therefore on May 4, 2016, EPA published a final rule reclassifying
the area from a Marginal nonattainment area to a Moderate nonattainment
area for the 2008 8-hour ozone standard (81 FR 26697). Moderate areas
were required to attain the 2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS no later than July
20, 2018, six years after the effective date of the initial
nonattainment designations. See 40 CFR 51.1103.
Under the provisions of EPA's ozone implementation rule for the
2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS (40 CFR part 51, subpart AA), EPA can issue a
determination that an area is attaining the relevant standard, also
known as a Clean Data Determination (40 CFR 51.1118). On July 14, 2016
(81 FR 45419), EPA determined that the Atlanta 2008 8-hour ozone
nonattainment area attained the 2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS based on
complete, quality-assured, and certified ozone monitoring data for
years 2013 through 2015. On July 18, 2016, Georgia submitted a 2008 8-
hour ozone redesignation request and maintenance plan for the area
(hereafter the ``Atlanta maintenance Area), which EPA approved on June
2, 2017 (82 FR 25523).
At the time of all of the redesignations to attainment noted above
(for the 1979 1-hour ozone NAAQS, the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS, and the
2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS), Georgia did not request relaxation of the
federal 7.8 psi RVP requirement for the Atlanta fuel volatility Area.
Georgia is now requesting relaxation of the federal 7.8 psi RVP
requirement to 9.0 psi for the Atlanta fuel volatility Area.
On October 1, 2015, EPA revised the 8-hour ozone standard from
0.075 ppm to 0.070 ppm (80 FR 65292). Subsequently, on June 4, 2018,
EPA published a final rule (effective date August 3, 2018) designating
the following 7 Atlanta counties Marginal nonattainment for the 2015 8-
hour ozone NAAQS: Bartow, Clayton, Cobb, Dekalb, Fulton, Gwinnett and
Henry (83 FR 25776). The 7 counties comprising the 2015 8-hour ozone
nonattainment area are also part of the 13-county Atlanta fuel
volatility Area. Areas designated Marginal nonattainment must attain
the standard by August 3, 2021.
III. What is the history of the gasoline volatility requirement?
On August 19, 1987 (52 FR 31274), EPA determined that gasoline
nationwide had become increasingly volatile, causing an increase in
evaporative emissions from gasoline-powered vehicles and equipment.
Evaporative emissions from gasoline, referred to as VOCs, are
precursors to the formation of tropospheric ozone and contribute to the
nation's ground-level ozone problem. Exposure to ground-level ozone can
reduce lung function (thereby aggravating asthma or other respiratory
conditions), increase susceptibility to respiratory infection, and may
contribute to premature death in people with heart and lung disease.
The most common measure of fuel volatility that is useful in
evaluating gasoline evaporative emissions is RVP. Under section 211(c)
of CAA, EPA promulgated regulations on March 22, 1989 (54 FR 11868),
that set maximum limits for the RVP of gasoline sold during the high
ozone season. These regulations constituted Phase I of a two-phase
nationwide program, which was designed to reduce the volatility of
commercial gasoline during the summer ozone control season. 40 CFR
80.27(a)(1). On June 11, 1990 (55 FR 23658), EPA promulgated more
stringent volatility controls as Phase II of the volatility control
program. These requirements established maximum RVP standards of 9.0
psi or 7.8 psi (depending on the state, the month, and the area's
initial ozone attainment designation with respect to the 1-hour ozone
NAAQS during the high ozone season).
The 1990 CAA Amendments established a new section, 211(h), to
address fuel volatility. Section 211(h) requires EPA to promulgate
regulations making it unlawful to sell, offer for sale, dispense,
supply, offer for supply, transport, or introduce into commerce
gasoline with a RVP level in excess of 9.0 psi during the high ozone
season. Section 211(h) prohibits EPA from establishing a volatility
standard more stringent than 9.0 psi in an attainment area, except that
EPA may impose a lower (more stringent) standard in any former ozone
nonattainment area redesignated to attainment.
On December 12, 1991 (56 FR 64704), EPA modified the Phase II
volatility regulations to be consistent with section 211(h) of the CAA.
40 CFR 80.27(a)(2). The modified regulations prohibited the sale of
gasoline with a RVP above 9.0 psi in all areas designated attainment
for ozone, beginning in 1992. For areas designated as nonattainment,
the regulations retained the original Phase II standards published on
June 11, 1990 (55 FR 23658). A current listing of the federal RVP
requirements for states can be found on EPA's website at: https://www.epa.gov/gasoline-standards.
As explained in the December 12, 1991 (56 FR 64704), Phase II
rulemaking, EPA believes that relaxation of an applicable federal RVP
standard is best accomplished in conjunction with the redesignation
process. In order for an ozone nonattainment area to be redesignated as
an attainment area, section 107(d)(3) of the Act requires the state to
make a showing, pursuant to section 175A of the Act, that the area is
capable of maintaining attainment for the ozone NAAQS for ten years
after redesignation. Depending on the area's circumstances, this
maintenance plan will either demonstrate that the area can maintain
attainment for ten years without the more stringent volatility standard
or that the more stringent volatility standard may be necessary for the
area to maintain its attainment with the ozone NAAQS. Therefore, in the
context of a request for redesignation, EPA will not relax the
volatility standard unless the state requests a relaxation and the
maintenance plan demonstrates, to the satisfaction of EPA,
[[Page 3361]]
that the area will maintain attainment without the need for the more
stringent volatility standard. As mentioned before, under the initial
1-hour ozone nonattainment designation, the 13-county Atlanta fuel
volatility Area was required to sell gasoline that complied with the
federal 7.8 psi RVP limit from June 1 to September 15 of each year.
Additionally, to comply with the 1-hour ozone NAAQS, Georgia
adopted a state fuel program through Georgia Rule 391-3-1-.02(2)(bbb),
Gasoline Marketing, (hereafter ``Georgia Rule''), which required the
sale of low sulfur gasoline with an RVP of 7.0 psi during the high
ozone season in a 45-county Georgia Fuel Area. The Georgia Fuel Area
included the 20-county 1997 8-hour ozone maintenance and the 15-county
2008 8-hour nonattainment areas (the 15-county area being a subset of
the 20-county area) with the remaining counties considered ``counties
of influence.'' The Georgia Rule was implemented through a waiver under
section 211(c)(4)(C) of the CAA, which allowed the adoption of a state
fuel program more stringent than the Federal requirement. EPA
incorporated the Georgia Rule into the Georgia SIP on July 19, 2004 (69
FR 33862). The Georgia Rule was removed from the Georgia SIP effective
October 1, 2015 (80 FR 52627).
Again, Georgia did not request relaxation of the applicable 7.8 psi
federal RVP standard for the 13-county Atlanta fuel volatility Area
when the Area was redesignated to attainment for the 1979 1-hour ozone
NAAQS, the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS, and the 2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS.
Georgia is therefore now submitting a revision to the 2008 8-hour ozone
NAAQS maintenance plan and a non-interference demonstration concluding
that relaxing the federal RVP requirement from 7.8 psi to 9.0 psi for
gasoline sold between June 1st and September 15th of each year in the
Atlanta fuel volatility Area would not interfere with attainment or
maintenance of the any of the NAAQS.
IV. What are the Section 110(l) requirements?
The modeling associated with Georgia's maintenance plan for the
2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS, approved on June 2, 2017, was premised upon
the future-year emissions estimates for 2018, 2022, 2026, and 2030,
which include the federal 7.8 psi RVP requirement in the Atlanta fuel
volatility Area. To approve Georgia's request to relax the federal RVP
requirement in the Atlanta fuel volatility Area, EPA must conclude that
requested change will satisfy section 110(l) of the CAA. Section 110(l)
requires that a revision to the SIP not interfere with any applicable
requirement concerning attainment and reasonable further progress (as
defined in section 171), or any other applicable requirement of the
Act. In this submittal, Georgia's modeling includes the same future
years but is based on the federal 9.0 psi RVP limit. EPA is proposing
approval of the noninterference demonstration based on an evaluation of
current air quality monitoring data and the information provided in the
noninterference demonstration.
Additionally, in the absence of an attainment demonstration, to
demonstrate no interference with any applicable NAAQS or requirement of
the CAA under section 110(l), EPA believes it is appropriate to allow
states to substitute equivalent emissions reductions to compensate for
any change to a SIP-approved program, as long as actual emissions in
the air are not increased. ``Equivalent'' emissions reductions are
reductions that are equal to or greater than those reductions achieved
by the control measure approved in the SIP. To show that compensating
emissions reductions are equivalent, adequate justification must be
provided. The compensating, equivalent reductions should represent
actual emissions reductions achieved in a contemporaneous time frame to
the change of the existing SIP control measure order to preserve the
status quo level of emission in the air. If the status quo is
preserved, noninterference is demonstrated. In addition to being
contemporaneous, the equivalent emissions reductions should also be
permanent, enforceable, quantifiable, and surplus.
EPA evaluates each section 110(l) noninterference demonstration on
a case-by-case basis considering the circumstances of each SIP
revision. EPA interprets 110(l) as applying to all NAAQS that are in
effect, including those for which SIP submissions have not been made.
The degree of analysis focused on any particular NAAQS in a
noninterference demonstration varies depending on a number of relevant
factors, including the nature of the emissions associated with the
proposed SIP revision. EPA's section 110(l) analysis of the
noninterference demonstration included as part of Georgia's August 15,
2018, SIP revision is provided below.
V. What is EPA's analysis of Georgia's submittal?
a. Proposed Conclusions Regarding Georgia's Noninterference
Demonstration
On August 15, 2018, Georgia submitted a noninterference
demonstration to support the State's request to relax the federal
summertime gasoline RVP limit from 7.8 psi to 9.0 psi for the Atlanta
fuel volatility Area. This noninterference demonstration evaluates the
15-county Atlanta maintenance Area, which encompasses the smaller
Atlanta fuel volatility Area, and the 7-county 2015 8-hour ozone
nonattainment area. This demonstration includes an evaluation of the
impact that the relaxation of the 7.8 psi RVP requirement would have on
Atlanta's ability to maintain the 1997 and 2008 ozone standards. It
also evaluates whether the relaxation of the federal RVP requirement
would interfere with the ability of the 7-county 2015 8-hour ozone
nonattainment area to attain the ozone standard by August 3, 2021,
which is the attainment date for areas classified as Marginal, or with
any of the other applicable NAAQS. Although the attainment date is
August 3, 2021, Marginal areas must show attainment using air quality
data for years 2018 through 2020. The 2015 8-hour ozone NAAQS and other
NAAQS are addressed later in this notice.
Georgia EPD focused its analysis on the impact of the relaxed
federal RVP limit of 9.0 psi to attainment and maintenance of the ozone
standards and its precursors NOX and VOC. RVP requirements
do not affect lead (Pb), sulfur dioxide (SO2), or carbon
monoxide (CO) emissions. Because VOC and NOX emissions are
also precursors for PM, and NOX is a precursor for nitrogen
dioxide (NO2), these pollutants will be discussed later in
this Section. Georgia is currently in attainment for all PM NAAQS,
SO2, NO2, CO, and Pb. The relaxation of the RVP
requirement will have little to no impact on emissions of these
pollutants or their related precursors.
In this noninterference demonstration, Georgia used EPA's
MOVES2014a model to develop its projected mobile (on-road and nonroad)
emissions inventory according to EPA's guidance for on-road and nonroad
mobile sources. As mentioned before, the future-year on-road mobile
source emissions estimates for 2018, 2020, 2025 and 2030, 2035 and 2040
were generated with MOVES2014a using a RVP input parameter of 10.0 psi.
This noninterference demonstration modeled year 2018 to align with the
2008 8-hour
[[Page 3362]]
ozone maintenance plan. Therefore, the year 2018 serves as a surrogate
for the year 2019 when Georgia projects the relaxation of the federal
RVP requirement would take place. The maintenance plan showed
compliance with and maintenance of the 2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS by
providing information to support this demonstration that current and
future emissions of NOX and VOC remained at or below the
2014 2008 8-hour ozone attainment base year emissions inventory.\2\ The
analysis in this proposal will primarily refer to the years 2018 and
2030 to stay in alignment with the 2008 8-hour ozone maintenance plan.
The emissions trend for year 2020 will be discussed later in the notice
because attainment for the 2015 8-hour ozone NAAQS will be based on
years 2018 through 2020. Also, based on modeling data from EPA's Cross
State Air Pollution Rule, the entire State of Georgia is showing
attainment for the 2015 8-hour ozone NAAQS through 2023.\3\
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\2\ The 2014 base year emissions are unchanged from the 2008 8-
hour ozone maintenance plan included in Appendix A of this SIP
revision.
\3\ See the Peter Tsirigotis Memorandum dated October 19, 2018,
entitled ``Considerations for Identifying Maintenance Receptors for
Use in Clean Air Act Section 11 0(a)(2)(D)(i)(I) Interstate
Transport State Implementation Plan Submissions for the 2015 Ozone
National Ambient Air Quality Standards.'' See also https://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/memo-and-supplemental-information-regarding-interstate-transport-sips-2015-ozone-naaqs.
\4\ In this table, and in tables 2 and 3 below, the 13-county
area refers to the Atlanta 1-hour ozone area (referenced herein as
the Atlanta fuel volatility Area) whereas the 15-county area refers
to the Atlanta 2008 8-hour ozone area (referenced herein as the
Atlanta maintenance Area). The 2-county area is the difference
between the Atlanta 1-hour ozone area boundary and the Atlanta 2008
8-hour ozone boundary. This table is how the State references these
areas in their submittal.
\5\ As mentioned before, the 1 psi waiver for E10 is included in
all calculations in this table. E10 is a fuel blend with 10 percent
ethanol. Therefore, the actual input parameter is 8.8 psi and 10.0
psi. The 2-county area is not included in the original 13-county
Atlanta fuel volatility Area and was never subject to the 7.8 psi
RVP requirements. Federal RVP limits are 7.8 psi and 9.0 psi, not
including the additional 1.0 psi that applies to 10 percent ethanol
blends. Throughout the rest of the proposal we will refer to the RVP
limits as 7.8 psi and 9.0 psi.
\6\ In final calculations for the nonattainment area, an
additional 0.03 tpd would be added to these values to account for
the Senior Exemption. Senior citizens are exempt from the Inspection
and Maintenance (I/M) program testing and thus 0.03 tpd (based on
2002 emissions comparisons) is used as a conservative estimate of
disbenefit.
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Tables 1 and 2, below, show the direct impact on the on-road mobile
source emissions due to a relaxation of the federal RVP requirements
from 7.8 psi to 9.0 psi for the Atlanta fuel volatility Area. As
summarized below, on-road NOX and VOC emissions increase
when the requirement is relaxed to 9.0 psi. NOX emissions
increased by 0.29 and 0.05 tons per day (tpd) in 2018 and 2030,
respectively in the 15-county Atlanta maintenance Area. VOC emissions
also increased by 0.75 and 0.14 tpd in 2018 and 2030, respectively in
the same area. While emissions of both precursors increase with a RVP
relaxation to 9.0 psi, the increases decrease over time from 0.27
percent in 2018 to 0.13 percent in 2030 for NOX emissions
and from 1.11 percent in 2018 down to 0.39 percent in 2030 for VOC
emissions in the 15-county Atlanta maintenance Area. Even with the
small increases in emissions for the 15-county Atlanta maintenance
Area, the overall on-road emissions for NOX decrease from
106.23 tpd in 2018 to 39.60 tpd in 2030. Similarly, the overall on-road
emissions for VOC decrease from 68.35 tpd in 2018 to 35.96 tpd in 2030
in the 15-county Atlanta maintenance Area. This indicates that changes
in on-road emissions due to a relaxation of the federal RVP limit from
7.8 psi to 9.0 psi will not interfere with continued maintenance of the
2008 8-hour NAAQS in the 15-county Atlanta maintenance Area.
Table 1--On-Road NOX Emissions Before and After RVP Relaxation \4\
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7.8 psi
gasoline for
13 counties 9.0 psi Emissions Emissions
Pollutant and region Year and 9.0 psi gasoline for increase with increase with
gasoline for 2 15-counties RVP relaxation RVP relaxation
counties \5\ (tpd) (tpd) (percent)
(tpd)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
13-county area.................. 2018 94.49 94.78 0.29 0.31
2020 76.49 76.70 0.21 0.28
2025 55.61 55.74 0.13 0.23
2030 34.74 34.78 0.05 0.14
2035 29.08 29.10 0.02 0.07
2040 23.43 23.42 -0.01 -0.04
2-county area................... 2018 11.45 11.45 0.0 0.0
2020 9.49 9.49 0.0 0.0
2025 7.16 7.16 0.0 0.0
2030 4.82 4.82 0.0 0.0
2035 4.36 4.36 0.0 0.0
2040 3.90 3.90 0.0 0.0
15-county \6\ area.............. 2018 105.94 106.23 0.29 0.27
2020 85.98 86.19 0.21 0.24
2025 62.77 62.90 0.13 0.21
2030 39.56 39.60 0.05 0.13
2035 33.44 33.46 0.02 0.06
2040 27.33 27.32 -0.01 -0.04
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[[Page 3363]]
Table 2--On-Road VOC Emissions Before and After RVP Relaxation
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7.8 psi
gasoline for
13 counties 9.0 psi Emissions Emissions
Pollutant and region Year and 9.0 psi gasoline for increase with increase with
gasoline for 2 15-counties RVP relaxation RVP relaxation
counties (tpd) (tpd) (percent)
\7\(tpd)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
13-county area.................. 2018 62.14 62.89 0.75 1.21
2020 53.64 54.14 0.50 0.94
2025 43.26 43.59 0.32 0.75
2030 32.89 33.03 0.14 0.43
2035 28.56 28.69 0.13 0.45
2040 24.24 24.36 0.11 0.47
2-county area................... 2018 5.46 5.46 0.0 0.0
2020 4.72 4.72 0.0 0.0
2025 3.83 3.83 0.0 0.0
2030 2.93 2.93 0.0 0.0
2035 2.59 2.59 0.0 0.0
2040 2.26 2.26 0.0 0.0
15-county \8\ area.............. 2018 67.60 68.35 0.75 1.11
2020 58.36 58.86 0.50 0.86
2025 47.09 47.41 0.32 0.68
2030 35.82 35.96 0.14 0.39
2035 31.16 31.29 0.13 0.42
2040 26.50 26.61 0.11 0.42
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nonroad mobile sources include vehicles, engines, and equipment
used for construction, agriculture, recreation, and other purposes that
do not use roadways (e.g., lawn mowers, construction equipment, and
railroad locomotives). Georgia did not address nonroad NOX
emissions because the NONROAD model within MOVES 2014a model indicated
that the change in the RVP limit did not result in changes in
NOX emissions from nonroad sources. Therefore, Georgia did
calculate changes in nonroad VOC emissions before and after the
relaxation as shown in Table 3, below.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\7\ As mentioned before, the 1 psi waiver for E10 is included in
all calculations in this table. E10 is a fuel blend with 10 percent
ethanol. Therefore, the actual input parameter is 8.8 psi and 10.0
psi. The 2-county area is not included in the original 13-county
Atlanta fuel volatility Area and was never subject to the 7.8 psi
RVP requirements. Federal RVP limits are 7.8 psi and 9.0 psi, not
including the additional 1.0 psi that applies to 10 percent ethanol
blends. Throughout the rest of the proposal we will refer to the RVP
limits as 7.8 psi and 9.0 psi.
\8\ In final calculations for the nonattainment area, an
additional 0.03 tpd would be added to these values to account for
the Senior Exemption. Senior citizens are exempt from the I/M
program testing and thus 0.03 tpd (based on 2002 emissions
comparisons) is used as a conservative estimate of disbenefit.
\9\ In final calculations for the nonattainment area, an
additional 0.03 tpd would be added to these values to account for
the Senior Exemption. Senior citizens are exempt from the Inspection
and Maintenance (I/M) program testing and thus 0.03 tpd (based on
2002 emissions comparisons) is used as a conservative estimate of
disbenefit.
Table 3--Nonroad VOC Emissions Before and After RVP Relaxation
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7.8 psi
gasoline for 9.0 psi Emissions Emissions
13 counties gasoline for increase with increase with
Pollutant and region Year and 9.0 psi 15-counties RVP relaxation RVP relaxation
gasoline for 2 (tpd) (tpd) (percent)
counties (tpd)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
13-county area.................. 2018 45.15 45.97 0.82 1.82
2020 44.74 45.58 0.84 1.88
2025 46.48 47.37 0.89 1.91
2030 48.23 49.17 0.94 1.95
2035 51.11 52.11 1.00 1.96
2040 54.00 55.06 1.06 1.96
2-county area................... 2018 1.59 1.59 0.0 0.0
2020 1.51 1.51 0.0 0.0
2025 1.48 1.48 0.0 0.0
2030 1.46 1.46 0.0 0.0
2035 1.52 1.52 0.0 0.0
2040 1.59 1.59 0.0 0.0
15-county NAA \9\ area.......... 2018 46.74 47.56 0.82 1.75
2020 46.25 47.09 0.84 1.82
2025 47.97 48.86 0.89 1.86
2030 49.69 50.63 0.94 1.89
2035 52.64 53.64 1.00 1.90
2040 55.59 56.65 1.06 1.91
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 3364]]
As shown in Table 3, in the 15-county Atlanta maintenance Area,
nonroad VOC emissions increased by 0.82 tpd in 2018 from 46.75 tpd to
47.56 tpd and by 0.94 tpd in 2030 from 49.69 tpd to 50.63 tpd when the
federal RVP limit is relaxed to 9.0 psi. The nonroad VOC emissions
increase from 1.75% in 2018 to 1.89% in 2030.
Tables 4 and 5, below show the 2014 NOX and VOC
attainment inventories from all sectors (point, area, nonroad, and on-
road) comparing the current 7.8 psi gasoline RVP to gasoline that
complies with the federal gasoline RVP limit of 9.0 psi. Georgia
calculated the change in emissions from attainment levels for both the
7.8 psi and 9.0 psi RVP gasoline and used the term ``margin'' to
indicate the amount of the decrease in tpd from attainment (2014) to
the maintenance (2030) and beyond (2040). The ``allotted'' amount is
the difference in emissions from the 7.8 psi RVP gasoline to the 9.0
psi RVP gasoline. Georgia also shows the allotted difference as a
percent.
Table 4--2014 NOX Attainment Inventory Comparison 7.8 psi to 9.0 psi RVP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total NOX Total NOX
Total 2014 NOX emissions emissions Current RVP Relaxed RVP Amount of Percent of
attainment inventory with inventory with (7.8) gasoline (9.0) gasoline margin margin
Year inventory current (7.8) relaxed (9.0) margin (NOX) margin (NOX) allotted to allotted to
(tpd) RVP gasoline RVP gasoline (tpd) (tpd) relax RVP relax RVP
(tpd) (tpd) (tpd)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2014.................................... 283.09 283.09 N/A 0 N/A N/A N/A
2018.................................... 283.09 205.86 206.15 77.23 76.94 0.29 0.38
2020.................................... 283.09 181.23 181.44 101.86 101.65 0.21 0.21
2025.................................... 283.09 153.16 153.29 129.93 129.80 0.13 0.10
2030.................................... 283.09 125.09 125.14 158.00 157.95 0.05 0.03
2035.................................... 283.09 118.67 118.69 164.42 164.40 0.02 0.01
2040.................................... 283.09 112.25 112.24 170.84 170.85 -0.01 0.00
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 5--2014 VOC Attainment Inventory Comparison 7.8 psi to 9.0 psi RVP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total VOC Total VOC
Total 2014 VOC emissions emissions Current RVP Relaxed RVP Amount of Percent of
attainment inventory with inventory with (7.8) gasoline (9.0) gasoline margin margin
Year inventory current (7.8) relaxed (9.0) margin (VOC) margin (VOC) allotted to allotted to
(tpd) RVP gasoline RVP gasoline (tpd) (tpd) relax RVP relax RVP
(tpd) (tpd) (tpd)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2014.................................... 266.25 266.25 N/A 0 N/A N/A N/A
2018.................................... 266.25 246.71 248.29 19.54 17.96 1.58 8.09
2020.................................... 266.25 236.32 237.67 29.93 28.58 1.34 4.48
2025.................................... 266.25 225.15 226.36 41.10 39.89 1.21 2.94
2030.................................... 266.25 213.97 215.06 52.28 51.19 1.08 2.07
2035.................................... 266.25 210.64 211.77 55.61 54.48 1.13 2.03
2040.................................... 266.25 207.31 208.48 58.94 57.77 1.17 1.99
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As shown in Table 4, when the RVP is relaxed, the total
NOX emissions increase the most in 2018 by 0.29 tpd, from
205.86 tpd to 206.15 tpd. In the outyear, 2030, NOX
emissions increase slightly by 0.05 tpd, from 125.09 tpd to 125.14 tpd
when the federal RVP limit is relaxed. Although there are small
increases in NOX, overall, total NOX emissions
decrease by 170.85 tpd from the attainment year 2014 to the future year
2040.
Table 5 shows that the total VOC emissions increase in 2018 by 1.58
tpd, from 246.71 tpd to 248.29 tpd. In the outyear 2030, VOC emissions
increase by 1.08 tpd, from 213.97 tpd to 215.06 tpd. Although there are
emissions increases in VOC when the federal RVP limit is relaxed to 9.0
psi, there is an overall downward trend in emissions from the 2014
attainment year to the 2030 maintenance year. VOC emissions decrease
from 266.25 tpd in 2014 down to 208.48 tpd in 2040 an overall decrease
of 57.77 tpd.
Based on Tables 4 and 5, total NOX emissions in the 2014
attainment year when the RVP is relaxed to 9.0 psi trends downward from
283.09.15 tpd to 125.14 tpd. This gives a safety margin of 157.95 tpd.
The VOC safety margin is 51.19 tpd because of the downward trend from
the attainment level of 266.25 tpd to the maintenance level of 215.06
tpd with 9.0 psi RVP. A safety margin is the difference between the
attainment level of emissions (from all sources) and the projected
level of emissions (from all sources) in the maintenance plan.
Even with the increases in nonroad VOC emissions shown in Table 3,
there is a downward trend in overall NOX and VOC. The
downward trend in the total NOX and VOC emissions in the
2014 attainment inventories indicate that the 15-county Atlanta
maintenance Area can continue to maintain the 1997 and 2008 8-hr ozone
NAAQS because overall emissions will be below the 2014 attainment
levels for the 2008 ozone NAAQS which is more than the 1997 ozone
NAAQS.\10\ Further, Georgia will need to offset the increase in
emissions of 0.29 tpd of NOX and 1.58 tpd of VOC in order to
demonstrate non-interference with the 2015 ozone NAAQS, as discussed
below. Georgia will get contemporaneous, compensating, equivalent
emissions reductions to offset the increase in emissions. Therefore,
Atlanta's ability to attain the 7-county 2015 8-hour ozone NAAQS will
not be affected. The offsets are explained in more detail later in this
Section.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\10\ The 2008 ozone NAAQS is 0.075 ppm compared to the 1997
ozone NAAQS is 0.08 ppm, effectively 0.084 ppm.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 3365]]
b. Noninterference Analysis for the 2015 Ozone NAAQS
As mentioned above, EPA determined that the 20-county Atlanta
metropolitan area attained the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS of 0.08 ppm,
effectively 0.084 ppm, and redesignated the area to attainment on
December 2, 2013 (78 FR 72040). EPA determined that the 15-county
Atlanta maintenance Area attained the 0.075 ppm 2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS
on July 14, 2016, and EPA redesignated the area to attainment on June
2, 2017 (82 FR 25523).
The current 3-year design value for 2015-2017 for the Atlanta area
is 0.075 ppm,\11\ which demonstrates Atlanta is continuing to maintain
the 1997 and 2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS. The 2015 8-hour ozone NAAQS is
0.070 ppm and the 7-county Atlanta area is currently designated
nonattainment for this NAAQS as the current ozone design value is 0.075
ppm.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\11\ The design value for an area is the highest 3-year average
of the annual fourth-highest daily maximum 8-hour concentration
recorded at any monitor in the area.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 6 below shows the ozone monitoring data from monitoring
stations in Atlanta. As previously mentioned, the 7-county 2015 8-hour
ozone nonattainment area must attain the 2015 8-hour ozone NAAQS by
August 3, 2021, with air quality data for years 2018 through 2020.
Tables 4 and 5 above show the trend in emissions from the 2008 8-hour
ozone NAAQS attainment year (2014) through the maintenance year (2030).
The emissions trend shows that even with a 9.0 psi RVP fuel, emissions
remain below the attainment inventory level of 283.09 tpd for
NOX and 266.5 for VOC. NOX emissions decrease by
76.94 tpd in 2018 and even more to 101.65 tpd in 2020. By 2030,
NOX emissions will decrease by 157.95 tpd. Likewise, VOC
emissions decrease by 17.96 tpd in 2018 to 28.58 tpd in 2020. By 2030,
VOC emissions will decrease by 51.19 tpd. Based on the overall downward
trend in emissions even with a 9.0 RVP fuel, and the offsetting,
contemporaneous, compensating, equivalent, emissions reductions
obtained for the 15-county Atlanta maintenance Area to account for the
small increases due to a relaxation of the RVP requirement, EPA
believes that a relaxation of the federal RVP requirement from 7.8 psi
to 9.0 psi will not affect Atlanta's ability to attain the 2015 8-hour
ozone NAAQS. Again, a more detailed discussion regarding the offsets
and ozone sensitivities in Atlanta will be given later in the notice.
Table 6--2015-2017 Design Value Concentrations for Atlanta (ppm) \12\
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4th highest 8-hour ozone value 3-Year design
------------------------------------------------ values
Location (county) Monitoring station ---------------
2015 2016 2017 2015-2017
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cobb........................................... GA National Guard, McCollum Pkwy (13- 0.066 0.070 0.065 0.067
067-0003).
Coweta......................................... University of W. Georgia at Newnan (13- 0.066 0.066 0.057 0.063
077-0002).
DeKalb......................................... 2390-B Wildcat Road Decatur (13-089- 0.071 0.074 0.068 0.071
0002).
Douglas........................................ Douglas Co. Water Auth. W. Strickland 0.070 0.071 0.066 0.069
St. (13-097-0004).
Gwinnett....................................... Gwinnett Tech, 5150 Sugarloaf Pkwy. (13- 0.071 0.078 0.065 0.071
135-0002).
Henry.......................................... Henry County Extension Office (13-151- 0.070 0.078 0.067 0.071
0002).
Paulding....................................... Yorkville, King Farm (13-223-0003)..... 0.065 0.067 -- 0.066
Rockdale....................................... Conyers Monastery, 2625 GA Hwy. 212 (13- 0.068 0.076 0.065 0.069
247-0001).
Fulton......................................... Confederate Ave., Atlanta (13-121-0055) 0.077 0.075 0.074 0.075
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
c. Noninterference Analysis for the PM NAAQS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\12\ These monitoring stations are representative of the air
quality in the entire Atlanta area even though not all counties in
the 7-county 2015 ozone nonattainment area have a monitoring
station.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Over the course of several years, EPA has reviewed and revised the
PM2.5 NAAQS several times. On July 18, 1997, EPA established
an annual PM2.5 NAAQS of 15 micrograms per cubic meter
([mu]g/m\3\) and designated the Atlanta area nonattainment for the 1997
annual PM2.5 NAAQS on April 14, 2005 (70 FR 19844). The
Atlanta area attained the 1997 annual NAAQS and was redesignated
attainment on February 24, 2016 (81 FR 9114).
On September 21, 2006, EPA retained the 1997 annual
PM2.5 NAAQS of 15.0 [mu]g/m\3\ but revised the 24-hour
PM2.5 NAAQS from 65.0 [mu]g/m\3\ to 35.0 [mu]g/m\3\, (71 FR
61144) effective October 17, 2006. The Atlanta area was never
designated nonattainment for the 24-hour PM2.5 NAAQS.
On December 14, 2012, EPA strengthened the annual primary
PM2.5 NAAQS from 15 [mu]g/m\3\ to 12.0 [mu]g/m.\3\ (78 FR
3086). EPA designated Atlanta unclassifiable/attainment for the 2012
annual primary PM2.5 NAAQS (80 FR 2206) on January 15, 2015.
The current 2015-2017 design value for the annual and 24-hour
PM2.5 is 10.5 and 23.0 [mu]g/m\3\, respectively.
The main precursor pollutants for PM2.5 are
NOX, SO2, VOC, and ammonia. As mentioned above,
relaxing the federal RVP requirements only results in small emissions
increases of VOC and NOX. Moreover, there have been a number
of studies which have indicated that SO2 is the primary
driver of PM2.5 formation in the Southeast.\13\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\13\ See, e.g., Quantifying the sources of ozone, fine
particulate matter, and regional haze in the Southeastern United
States, Journal of Environmental Engineering (June 24, 2009),
available at: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479709001893?via%3Dihub.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
As previously stated, RVP does not affect the most significant
PM2.5 precursor (SO2).
Based on this and the fact that the current PM2.5 design
values for the Atlanta area are below the level of the 2012 annual
primary and 2006 24-hour PM2.5 NAAQS, EPA is proposing to
determine that a relaxation of the federal 7.8 psi gasoline RVP limit
to 9.0 psi for the affected counties would not interfere with the
Atlanta area's ability to attain or maintain the annual primary and 24-
hour PM2.5 NAAQS in the area.
[[Page 3366]]
d. Noninterference Analysis for the 2010 NO2 NAAQS
There are currently two primary nitrogen dioxide (NO2)
standards. On February 9, 2010 (75 FR 6474), EPA established a 1-Hour
NO2 standard set at 100 ppb. In 1971, an annual standard was
set at a level of 53 ppb and has remained unchanged. EPA designated all
counties in Georgia, including all of those in the Atlanta area as
unclassifiable/attainment for the 2010 NO2 NAAQS on February
17, 2012 (77 FR 95320). Currently, Atlanta's 2015-2017 design value for
the 2010 1-hour and annual NO2 NAAQS is 56.0 and 17.9 ppb,
respectively. Given that the area is well below the level of the NAAQS,
the small NO2 emissions increase from a RVP relaxation will
not interfere the area's ability to continue to attain the NAAQS. EPA
is proposing to determine that a change to a federal 9.0 psi RVP limit
for the Atlanta fuel volatility Area would not interfere with
attainment or maintenance of the 1-hour or annual NO2 NAAQS.
e. Noninterference Analysis for the SO2 NAAQS
On June 22, 2010 (75 FR 35520), EPA revised the SO2
standard. There are both primary and secondary standards for
SO2. The primary SO2 NAAQS is a 3-year average of
the 99th percentile of the daily maximum 1-hour concentration not to
exceed 75 ppb. The secondary standard is a 3-hour concentration not to
exceed 0.5 ppm more than once per year. On December 21, 2017, EPA
designated all counties in Atlanta attainment/unclassifiable for the
2010 SO2 NAAQS effective April 9, 2018 (83 FR 1098).
As mentioned earlier, SO2 is the driver of
PM2.5 formation and it does not influence RVP. Therefore,
based on the current designation and the 2015-2017 design value of 6.0
ppb, EPA is proposing to find that a change to federal 9.0 psi RVP
limit fuel for the Atlanta fuel volatility Area will not interfere with
attainment or maintenance of the 1-hour SO2 NAAQS.
f. Sensitivity of Ozone in Atlanta to NOX and VOC Emissions
Control of NOX and VOC are generally considered the most
important components of an ozone control strategy, and NOX
and VOC make up the largest controllable contribution to ambient ozone
formation. However, the metro Atlanta nonattainment/maintenance area
has shown a greater sensitivity of ground-level ozone to NOX
controls rather than VOC controls. This is due to high biogenic VOC
emissions compared to anthropogenic VOC emissions in Georgia.
Therefore, implemented control measures have focused on the control of
NOX emissions. The Atlanta nonattainment/maintenance area is
NOX limited in such a way that changes in anthropogenic VOC
emissions have little effect on ozone formation.\14\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\14\ As part of the Southeastern Modeling Analysis and Planning
(SEMAP) project, Georgia Institute of Technology performed an
analysis of the sensitivity of ozone concentrations in the Eastern
U.S. to reductions in emissions of both NOX and VOCs.
This analysis was based off the 2007 and 2018 SEMAP modeling which
used the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, version
5.01 with updates to the vertical mixing coefficients and land-water
interface. May 1st through September 30th was modeled using a 12-km
modeling grid that covered the Eastern U.S. Details of the modeling
platform set-up can be found in Appendix C.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sensitivities were modeled relative to 2018 emissions to evaluate
the impact of NOX and VOC reductions on daily 8-hour maximum
ozone concentrations. Each emissions sensitivity run reduced the 2018
anthropogenic NOX or VOC emissions (point, area, mobile,
nonroad, marine/aircraft/rail) within a specific geographic region by
30 percent. Georgia EPD examined the normalized sensitivities of
NOX and VOC emissions on 8-hour daily maximum ozone
concentrations (ppb ozone/TPD) at nine ozone monitors in Atlanta.\15\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\15\ For further details on the approach used to calculate the
normalized sensitivities of NOX and VOC, please see
Appendix D in Georgia's submittal.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The site-specific normalized NOX and VOC sensitivities
were applied to the expected emissions increases due to a relaxation of
the federal RVP limit from 7.8 to 9.0 psi. The emissions increases are
based on 2018 values and represent the largest impact as the emissions
increase will decrease each successive year. A relaxation of the
federal RVP limit results in an increase of VOC emissions of 1.58 tpd
in 2018. See Table 5. This includes nonroad vehicles and represents the
largest impact in any of the modeled years. A relaxation of the federal
RVP limit results in an increase of 0.29 tpd of NOX in 2018
in the 15-county Atlanta maintenance Area decreasing over time to near
zero by 2040. See Table 5. The corresponding ozone increases at each
monitor are found in Table 7 below and demonstrate insignificant
increases in ozone concentrations. The calculated changes in ozone
levels are well below the level of precision of the ambient ozone
monitors (1 ppb or 0.001 ppm).\16\ Since the corresponding ozone
increase at all nine monitors would only be seen at the fifth decimal
place,\17\ these small increases could not impact maintenance or
attainment of any ozone NAAQS.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\16\ Ozone concentrations are reported in ppm and to three
decimal places (e.g., 0.070 ppm); any additional decimal places are
truncated.
\17\ Because the increases in Table 7 is reported in ppb, the
changes are in the 2nd decimal place.
Table 7--Emissions Increases Due to Relaxation of the RVP and Effects on Ozone Formation
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Relaxation of the RVP from 7.8 psi to 9.0 Combined
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Corresponding
ozone increase Corresponding Corresponding
Monitor 2018 NOX at monitor due 2018 VOC ozone increase ozone increase
emissions to NOX emissions at monitor due at monitor
increase (tpd) increase \18\ increase (tpd) to VOC (ppb)
(ppb) increase (ppb)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kennesaw........................ 0.29 0.02149 1.58 0.00776 0.029
Newnan.......................... 0.29 0.02337 1.58 0.00278 0.026
Dawsonville..................... 0.29 0.01488 1.58 0.00009 0.015
South Dekalb.................... 0.29 0.02536 1.58 0.01083 0.036
Douglasville.................... 0.29 0.02311 1.58 0.00658 0.030
Confederate Ave................. 0.29 0.01864 1.58 0.01663 0.035
Gwinnett........................ 0.29 0.02211 1.58 0.00417 0.026
McDonough....................... 0.29 0.02521 1.58 0.00530 0.031
Conyers......................... 0.29 0.02628 1.58 0.00521 0.031
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 3367]]
g. Emissions Increases and Offsets From Locomotive Retrofits and School
Bus Replacements
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\18\ See Appendix D of the submission.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
As shown in Section V, Tables 4 and 5, relaxing the federal RVP
limit from 7.8 to 9.0 psi results in an increase in NOX
emissions in 2018 of 0.29 tons per day and 1.58 tons per day of VOC.
The high ozone season runs from June 1st to September 15th, which is
107 days per calendar year. 40 CFR 80.27(a)(2). This results in
equivalent emissions increases of 31.03 tons/year of NOX and
169.06 tons/year of VOC in the Atlanta fuel volatility Area during the
high ozone season.
As discussed above, Table 7 shows ozone formation in the 15-County
Atlanta maintenance Area and the sensitivity to reductions of
NOX and VOC emissions. The Area is a NOX limited
area; therefore, the control of NOX emissions result in
greater reductions of ozone compared to control of VOC emissions. The
maximum VOC emissions increase resulting from a relaxation of the RVP
from 7.8 psi to 9.0 psi is 1.58 tons per day (169.06 tons/year). This
increase in VOC emissions can be converted to an equivalent increase in
NOX emissions based on the ratio of normalized ozone
sensitivities described in Paragraph f. as follows:
169.06 tons/year VOC * (- 0.00417ppb/TPD VOC)/(- 0.07680 ppb/TPD NOx) =
9.179 tons/year NOX
By adding the actual NOX emissions increase to the
equivalent NOX emissions increase from VOC emissions using
the sensitivity calculation, the resulting offset NOX
emissions are:
31.03 tons/year of NOX + 9.179 tons/year of NOX
(VOC equivalent reduction) = 40.21 tons/year NOX offsets
required
Georgia's SIP revision includes two offset measures--school bus
replacements and rail locomotive conversions--to obtain the necessary
emissions reductions. Georgia EPD has a strong school bus early
replacement program. School bus replacement projects that were
completed in 2017 using Diesel Emissions Reduction Act funding have
resulted in NOX emissions reductions of 7.20 tons per year
(tpy) in the Atlanta maintenance Area. Specifically, five old school
buses (built in 2000-2003) in Paulding County were replaced with five
2017 school buses. Also, forty old school buses (built in 1999-2003) in
Fulton County were replaced with forty 2017 school buses.\19\ The
replacements took place in 2017, which falls within the contemporaneous
timeframe. Georgia has not previously relied on these emissions
reductions to satisfy any CAA requirement.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\19\ Calculations of NOX emission reductions for the
locomotives and school bus replacements are in Appendix E.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Locomotive Conversion Program consists of two components: (1)
The conversion of three older traditional switcher locomotives into
newly-available low emissions engine technology from Norfolk Southern
Railway, Inc., and (2) Norfolk Southern Railway, Inc.'s conversion of
two switchers into ``slugs'' which are driven by electrical motors
whose electricity is received from companion ``mother'' locomotives.
This configuration is referred to as mother-slug locomotives. Slugs do
not have any direct emissions. The conversion took place in December
2017, which also falls within the contemporaneous timeframe and
generated 38.81 tpy of NOX reductions. Georgia has not
previously relied on the emissions reductions from the Locomotive
Conversion Program to satisfy any CAA requirement. See Table 8 below
for a summary of the offsets.
Table 8--NOX Emissions Increases/Offsets Required From Relaxing the RVP Standard in 2018
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Locomotive School bus
Source of offset conversions replacements Total decrease
(tpy) (tpy) (tpy)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOX Emissions Decrease.......................................... 38.81 7.20 46.01
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on the available offsets from the locomotive conversion
projects and school bus early replacement projects, Georgia EPD has
offsets in excess of the increase in emissions associated with relaxing
the federal gasoline RVP limit from 7.8 psi to 9.0 psi.
Table 9--Emissions Increases Compared to Available Emissions Offsets
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total
Emissions increases due to relaxing GA RVP offsets Residual
requirements (tpy) available offsets
(tpy) (tpy)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
40.21............................................. 46.01 5.80
------------------------------------------------------------------------
The offsets available from both bus replacements and locomotive
conversions total 46.01 tpy of NOX. As shown in Table 9, the
annual NOX decrease from the locomotive conversions and
school bus replacements are more than adequate to offset the maximum
NOX and VOC emissions increases (40.21 tpy of equivalent
NOX) associated with relaxing the federal 7.8 psi RVP
requirements. There is a 5.80 ton per year residual NOX
emissions offset that will remain available.
Georgia has demonstrated noninterference by substituting
quantifiable, permanent, surplus, enforceable and contemporaneous
measures described above to achieve equivalent emissions reductions to
offset the potential emission increases related to a relaxation of the
federal 7.8 psi RVP requirements. The locomotive conversions and school
bus replacements occurring in 2017 are surplus since they have not been
relied upon by any attainment plan or demonstration or credited in any
RFP demonstration. The converted locomotives must remain operational
for a period of ten years from the date placed into revenue service
(December 2027). The school buses replaced must be scrapped or rendered
permanently disabled or remanufactured to a cleaner emissions standard
within 90 days of replacement. Therefore, the emissions reductions
obtained are considered permanent. The emissions reductions have been
quantified. Enforceability of the emissions reductions from locomotive
conversions and school bus replacements are addressed in the contract
commitments between Georgia EPD and Norfolk Southern Railway, Inc.\20\
The locomotive and school replacements are contemporaneous since they
occurred within one year of this submittal.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\20\ See Appendix E for the contract terms for the permanence of
locomotive conversions and school bus replacements.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 3368]]
h. Conclusion Regarding the Noninterference Analysis
EPA believes that the emissions reductions from the offset measures
included in the SIP revision are greater than those needed to maintain
the status quo in air quality and are permanent, enforceable,
quantifiable, surplus, contemporaneous and equivalent. This RVP
relaxation will not worsen air quality because Georgia has provided
offsets as compensating, equivalent emissions reductions to negate the
increases in emissions from NOX and VOCs. The amount of
NOX reductions obtained from the school bus and locomotive
retrofits are more than what is needed to compensate for the small
amount of NOX and VOC increases due to relaxation of the
federal RVP requirement. In addition, the downward trend in emissions
reflected in the NOX and VOC attainment inventories
summarized in Tables 4 and 5 shows the safety margins in the
maintenance year 2030 of 157.95 tpd for NOX and 51.19 tpd
for VOC. Therefore, EPA has preliminarily determined that the SIP
revision adequately demonstrates that relaxing the 7.8 psi RVP limit
will not interfere with Atlanta's ability to attain the 2015 8-hour
ozone NAAQS or maintain the 1997 and 2008 8-hour ozone NAAQS, and will
not interfere with any other NAAQS, or with any other applicable
requirement of the CAA.
i. Analysis of Updated 2030 MVEBs
This SIP revision includes an update to the mobile emissions
inventory and associated 2030 MVEBs due to a relaxation of the 7.8 psi
fuel to the 9.0 psi RVP fuel. Georgia used the same approach as
outlined in the June 2, 2017, EPA approval of the 2008 8-hour ozone
redesignation to determine the portion of the safety margin allocated
to the MVEBs for this SIP revision. The on-road emissions inventory and
safety margin allocation for the year 2030 were updated but the MVEB
totals themselves remain unchanged. See Table 10 below. As a result,
EPA is proposing to approve the updated MVEBs.
Table 10--Updated MVEBs for the Atlanta Maintenance Area (tpd)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2014 2030 \21\
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NOX VOC NOX VOC
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On-Road Emissions............................... 170.15 81.76 39.63 36.01
Safety Margin Allocation........................ .............. .............. 18.37 15.99
MVEBs with Safety Margin........................ 170.15 81.76 58 52
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VI. Proposed Action
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\21\ The 2014 on-road emissions and MVEBs in this chart are
shown for illustration purposes because no changes were made to the
2014 attainment year emissions inventory due to the relaxation.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
EPA is proposing to approve Georgia's August 15, 2018, SIP revision
to the 2008 8-hour ozone standard maintenance plan and corresponding
noninterference demonstration. This SIP revision includes an update to
the mobile emissions inventory (on-road and nonroad), the associated
2030 MVEBs, and the measures to offset the emissions increases due to a
relaxation of the 7.8 psi RVP requirement. All would support revisions
to the maintenance plan that Georgia will rely on for the relaxation of
the federal RVP requirement from 7.8 psi to 9.0 in the Atlanta fuel
volatility Area. EPA is proposing to find that a relaxation in the RVP
requirements for the Atlanta fuel volatility Area will not interfere
with attainment or maintenance of any NAAQS or with any other
applicable requirement of the CAA.
EPA has preliminarily determined that Georgia's August 15, 2018,
SIP revision is consistent with the applicable provisions of the CAA,
including section 110(l). Should EPA decide to relax the 7.8 psi
federal RVP standard in the Atlanta fuel volatility Area, such action
will occur in a separate and subsequent rulemaking.
VII. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews
Under the CAA, the Administrator is required to approve a SIP
submission that complies with the provisions of the Act and applicable
Federal regulations. See 42 U.S.C. 7410(k); 40 CFR 52.02(a). Thus, in
reviewing SIP submissions, EPA's role is to approve state choices,
provided they meet the criteria of the CAA. This action merely proposes
to approve changes to Georgia's maintenance plan emissions inventory,
the safety margins and safety margin allocations, the associated MVEBs,
and the measures used to offset the emissions increases due to relaxing
the federal RVP requirements. For that reason, this proposed action:
Is not a significant regulatory action subject to review
by the Office of Management and Budget under Executive Orders 12866 (58
FR 51735, October 4, 1993) and 13563 (76 FR 3821, January 21, 2011);
Is not an Executive Order 13771 (82 FR 9339, February 2,
2017) regulatory action because SIP approvals are exempted under
Executive Order 12866.
Does not impose an information collection burden under the
provisions of the Paperwork Reduction Act (44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq.);
Is certified as not having a significant economic impact
on a substantial number of small entities under the Regulatory
Flexibility Act (5 U.S.C. 601 et seq.);
Does not contain any unfunded mandate or significantly or
uniquely affect small governments, as described in the Unfunded
Mandates Reform Act of 1995 (Pub. L. 104-4);
Does not have Federalism implications as specified in
Executive Order 13132 (64 FR 43255, August 10, 1999);
Is not an economically significant regulatory action based
on health or safety risks subject to Executive Order 13045 (62 FR
19885, April 23, 1997);
Is not a significant regulatory action subject to
Executive Order 13211 (66 FR 28355, May 22, 2001);
Is not subject to requirements of Section 12(d) of the
National Technology Transfer and Advancement Act of 1995 (15 U.S.C. 272
note) because application of those requirements would be inconsistent
with the CAA; and
Does not provide EPA with the discretionary authority to
address, as appropriate, disproportionate human health or environmental
effects, using practicable and legally permissible methods, under
Executive Order 12898 (59 FR 7629, February 16, 1994).
The SIP is not approved to apply on any Indian reservation land or
in any other area where EPA or an Indian tribe has demonstrated that a
tribe has jurisdiction. In those areas of Indian country, the rule does
not have tribal implications as specified by Executive Order 13175 (65
FR 67249, November 9, 2000), nor will it impose substantial
[[Page 3369]]
direct costs on tribal governments or preempt tribal law.
List of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 52
Environmental protection, Air pollution control, Intergovernmental
relations, Incorporation by reference, Nitrogen dioxide, Ozone,
Particulate matter, Reporting and recordkeeping requirements, Volatile
organic compounds.
Authority: 42 U.S.C. 7401 et seq.
Dated: December 21, 2018.
Mary S. Walker,
Acting Regional Administrator, Region 4.
[FR Doc. 2019-01863 Filed 2-11-19; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6560-50-P